The iGaming Churn Descending Recovery Curve

The iGaming Churn Descending Recovery Curve reveals a simple but powerful truth: the faster marketers act on player churn, the more they will recover — in both engagement and revenue. Based on data from over 5 million players, proprietary research shows that players are most likely to return — and most valuable — within the first day of churn. Waiting even a week leads to dramatically lower reactivation rates and lifetime value. For marketers, this makes early detection, smart segmentation, and deposit-focused campaigns essential to maximizing player retention and ROI.

The Curve

Churn is inevitable in iGaming. But Optimove Insights data shows that when operators act quickly, they can turn churn into opportunity.

Using insights from 5,341,332 players across global operators (Oct 2023–Oct 2024), Optimove has defined the iGaming Churn Descending Recovery Curve, which shows that the longer a player stays churned, the less likely they are to return and the less valuable they become.

What is a Descending Recovery Curve

“Descending recovery” isn’t a standard finance term — but in iGaming, it’s relevant. It describes a pattern where the likelihood or value of recovery declines over time. The longer you wait to act, the less you recover.

In the context of player churn:

• The sooner you engage churned players, the higher their reactivation rate.
• Those who do return later are typically worth far less.

This mirrors similar patterns seen in collections or maintenance:

• The older a debt, the harder it is to collect.
• The longer a repair is delayed, the more expensive it becomes.

In iGaming, this means operators must engage players at the earliest signs of inactivity — ideally from Day 1 — to maximize both engagement and future value.

Life Cycle Stages

Optimove's Life Cycle Stage (LCS) model segments players based on their behavior and journey. "Churned" players are those who were active and made deposits but have been inactive for at least 30 days (definitions vary slightly by operator).

On average, 55% of an operator's customer base is in the Churn LCS. That’s the single largest segment — and a massive opportunity for reactivation.

Life Cycle Stage Definitions:

• Non-depositor: a person who registered on the operator's platform yet has not made a deposit (This person could have made a bet with bonus money from the operator)
• New: a new player who recently made a first-time deposit
• Reactivated: a player who had churned and came back made an activity
• Churned: A player who has made a deposit in the past and has not been active for the last 30 days

The iGaming Descending Recovery Curve: Why Speed Matters

The iGaming Descending Recovery Curve shows:

• Day 1 after churn: 27% of players can be reactivated, with the highest predicted future value (baseline = 100%).
• After 3 months: Only 2% reactivate, and their future value drops by 87% compared to Day 1.

Engaging on Day 1 makes all the difference. Waiting even a week can lead to significantly lower recovery rates and value.

What Kind of Reactivation Matters?

Not all reactivations are equal. Optimove's analysis shows:

• 60% of churned players reactivated by making a new deposit.
• 40% reactivated using existing or bonus money.

Players who return by depositing have 44% higher future value than those who reactivate without depositing.

The takeaway? Operators should prioritize campaigns that incentivize deposits, not just play.

Who Should You Reactivate?

Reactivation is only effective when it’s targeted. Optimove examined players’ bonus-to-deposit ratios in the year leading up to churn:

• 84% had a bonus/deposit ratio below 1:1 (i.e., they deposited more than they used in bonuses).
• 13% had a ratio over 1:1 (bonus-heavy).
• 3% never deposited at all (purely bonus-driven).

Players who primarily use bonus money are less valuable. The most successful reactivation strategies exclude these users and focus on deposit-driven segments.

• Speed is critical. The faster operators act, the more operators recover.
• Depositors are more valuable than bonus users.
• Intelligent segmentation prevents wasted spend on low-value reactivations.

In Summary

This is Positionless Marketing in action: giving marketers the insight and tools to act quickly, independently, and with precision.

To build a tailored churn reactivation strategy using the Descending Recovery Curve, contact us for a personalized strategy session.

Data aggregated from Optimove operators globally. Churn is defined as 30+ days of inactivity after deposit activity. Dormant players (inactive for 6+ months) were excluded from the core analysis. 

The iGaming Churn Descending Recovery Curve is a trademark of Optimove.